The climate crisis is no longer a distant threat but has become a reality that is already affecting economies, ecosystems and people’s lives. At the same time, the international landscape is undergoing a profound reorganisation of production systems, characterised by growing geopolitical instability and the advance of decarbonisation.

In this context, Brazil could face completely different futures depending on whether it chooses to continue along the current path – with a partial energy transition focused solely on emissions – or whether it recognises the interdependencies between the energy and agri-food systems and opts for an ecological transition.

The study Scenarios and Costs of the Ecological Transition in Brazil – The Interdependencies between the Energy Transition and the Agri-Food Transition and the Risks of Green Neo-Extractivism, published by the Brazilian Centre for Analysis and Planning (Cebrap) and Climainfo, analyses the urgency, the costs and the interdependence between the energy transition and the transition in the agri-food system in Brazil.

The document shows that the ecological transition represents a strategic opportunity not only to respond to the climate crisis, but also to reposition the Brazilian economy within an international landscape characterised by decarbonisation, the reorganisation of production chains and the increasing recognition of the value of environmental assets.

Read the study

In Brazil, this transition needs to be approached from a systemic perspective. The energy and agri-food systems share resources, production chains and territorial dynamics. The expansion of bioenergy, food production, land use, biodiversity conservation and the extraction of critical minerals are all part of an interconnected system, in which decisions taken have simultaneous effects on economic growth, energy security, food and nutritional security, competitiveness and sustainability.

This interdependence also means that the costs of inaction tend to rise. Maintaining the current model may exacerbate the losses resulting from more severe extreme weather events, environmental degradation and reduced agricultural productivity, whilst also increasing production costs, conflicts over land and water use, vulnerability to trade barriers, energy insecurity and the Brazilian economy’s exposure to geopolitical risks. In other words, postponing the transition means accumulating ever-increasing ecological, biophysical, economic, social and fiscal costs.

More than just a technological issue, therefore, the ecological transition involves economic, political and territorial choices. The challenge is not merely to develop new technologies or replace certain energy sources. It is to decide which activities we wish to encourage, where we wish to invest, which territories we wish to protect, and which development paths we wish to forge for the coming decades.

Planetary Boundaries vs. Current Values

The benefits of this transformation, however, will not be automatic. They will depend on the institutional and political choices made over the coming decades and on the explicit incorporation of criteria of justice. The challenge is not merely to reduce emissions and develop new technologies, but to build a new model of development capable of combining economic competitiveness, environmental conservation and social inclusion. A just ecological transition must generate economic opportunities, protect rights and reduce pressures on nature.

This means addressing contradictions that are already before us. Whilst Brazil presents itself as an environmental and climate powerhouse, we continue to debate the expansion of oil and gas exploration and to live with deforestation and pressure on indigenous territories and traditional communities. It is precisely at this point that the ecological transition ceases to be merely a debate about technologies and becomes a debate about choices and priorities.

Comparison of transition scenarios

Brazil is well placed to make this transition. What is at stake is the political capacity to turn these conditions into a new path for development.

It is in light of this challenge that this study proposes to consider the ecological transition as a broader transformation of the Brazilian development model — one capable of integrating energy, agriculture, land use, environmental protection and social justice.

Costs of making the transition

Brazil does not need to wait for the future to get started. Many of the solutions already exist. What is needed is to transform experiences, knowledge and possibilities into political choices capable of changing the direction of development.

The study takes precisely this challenge as its starting point: to consider the ecological transition as a broader transformation of the Brazilian development model.

Fonte: climainfo.org · Por climainfo